The following players are all talents at their respective positions. Likewise, if any of these players were to fall a few rounds passed their ADP, I’d absolutely take the value and pounce on the opportunity to do so.
QB – Russell Wilson
Based on talent and ability alone, Russell Wilson has been a top 5 Quarterback in the league since his rookie year in 2012. An underrated QB in real life, however in 2019 redraft leagues, he is rather overrated. On fantasyfootballcalculator.com Wilson is going as the QB 8, with the current ADP 7.04 in 12 team leagues. I don’t necessarily disagree with the QB 8 overall. In fact, that is well within the realm of possibility. If the QB 8 seems too low, and you may feel like getting Wilson as the QB 8 is a bargain, I ask you to consider the following. In the 2018 season, Wilson attempted the third fewest passes in his career, while the Seahawks also ran the ball more than every other team. Wilson had a sub-par fantasy year finishing as the QB 9 last year. He finished as the QB 9 while posting the highest touchdown rate of his career at 8.2%. His career average rate is 6%, a which puts last year’s mark a whopping 2.2% more than his average! Based on stats and efficiency alone, Wilson has the best year of his career and STILL only finished as the QB 9. I can’t see the justification taking him higher than he finished last year, when he had the best touchdown rate of his career and still barley finished as a QB 1. Wilson is due to regress to his career 6% norm, and right now everyone is drafting him as if he will have a better fantasy year. I can’t see this happening with Shottenheimer still in town as the OC, wanting to run the ball just as much as last year. In turn, I will not be drafting Wilson in 2019.
RB- Le’Veon Bell
Ahh Le’veon Bell. You hurt us when we drafted you last year, and you’ll hurt us again when we draft you this year. Coming off a completely lost season, Lev Bell will be thrust back in to a workhorse role with a new team in the Jets. Bell is currently going as the the RB 7, with the average ADP of 1.08. I can absolutely see Bell performing to those standards, and even surpassing them. However I do find it far more likely he will fail to live up to his current ADP. There are 10, yes 10 players I have ranked above Bell in my personal rankings. I may be much lower on Bell than the consensus, but there are good reasons for that. First and foremost is the fact Bell hasn’t played in a real game with pads in well over a year. I can’t imagine he has kept himself in pristine football shape throughout that entire time as well. Even if you believe in his raw, natural talent, one has to believe he will start his first few games incredibly rusty, putting your team at a critical disadvantage for the ever so crucial beginning of the season. But this is all propaganda and assumption, right? What about facts? Well. Bell’s new coach, Adam Gase is not a friend of fantasy football. Under Gase’s lead, offenses average bottom 3 in plays per game in the NFL. Given this fact, Lev Bell is not nearly going to get the amount of touches he received during his time in Pittsburgh. It’s also no secret the Jets offense is sub par either, meaning it will be hard to sustain drives as well. The Jets defense is also below average, which means the Jets will have to play catch-up in a lot of games. Although bell is a phenomenal pass catcher, I can’t see Darnold throwing dunk and dunk passes to the RB every time while down multiple touchdowns. Bell is an elite talent, but unfortunately for fantasy, he is on a bad team with a bad coach. He should get the volume to keep him as a low end RB 1, however where he is going in drafts, you miss out on elite players such as Hopkins, Adams, and Thomas. You won’t win your draft with your first pick, but you sure as hell can lose it. Go risk adverse in round one and pick up one of the tried and true stud receivers in mid-late round 1.
WR – Jarvis Landry
Ah Jarvis Landry, Mr consistent himself. Or so it seems. Since Landry entered the league a few years back, he has been viewed as the epitome of consistency due to the sheer number of receptions per game he has. In the upcoming 2019 season however, Landry is due for regression in a big way. Landry is currently going as the WR 26, with the average ADP of 6.05 in 12 team leagues. Before Freddie Kitchens took over for the Browns in week 9, Landry was averaging 14.5 PPR points a game, good enough for the 21st highest WR based on a per game average. Seems low right? Well, when Freddie Kitchens took over, Landry’s production actually got even worse than that. Post Freddie Kitchens takeover, Landry averaged 12.6 PPR points per game, good enough to be the 30th highest WR based on a per game average. Pretty shocking considering PPR format is in favor of Landry’s high reception total, yet he still managed to only be a mid WR 3. Enter Odell Beckham Jr, and Landry is not even the favorite to lead the Browns in targets this upcoming season. With that accounted for, as surprising as it sounds, logic suggests Landry should regress from the WR 30 which was his pace the last half of the season. Landry is clearly a talented player, but his ADP is considerably higher than where he will likely finish in 2019.
TE – Austin Hooper
To my surprise, Austin Hooper is currently going as the TE 16, with the ADP of 13.08 in 12 team leagues. Considering he finished the 2018 season as the TE 6 in PPR settings, I expected him to at least be going in the top 10. Nonetheless, Austin Hooper is a must avoid at all cost next year. Unlike the previous 3 players whom I’d draft if they slipped considerably in the draft, Hooper is just someone I’m not interested in drafting at all. Although the TE 6 last year, Hooper hurt you more than he helped you when you were bold enough to start him. Hooper’s TE 6 rating was a product of big boom games, and awful bust games. Hooper had 4 games last year with scores above 16, which is great for the TE position. However, in the other 15 games, Hooper averaged 7.8 points in a PPR setting. That average score killed you whenever you played him! Hooper’s Wild inconsistencies may help you 4 games a year, but will definitely hurt you more often than that. Instead of Hooper’s Boom games, draft someone with a little more consistency in that range such as Walker.