Gronk had a down year in 2018, as I’m sure everyone noticed, finishing as the 11th ranked TE during the 2018 fantasy season. That is nowhere near where most people that drafted Gronk in the third or fourth round expected him to end up. So what level can we expect him to play at in the 2019 season, and is it even worth his ADP?
First of all, I don’t see Gronk retiring. Not until his QB Tom Brady does, and not unless an injury gives Gronk enough grief to make him think about the long term aspects of his health. The past four years have shown a trend for Gronk, starting in 2015. A good year in 2015, down year in 2016, good in 2017, down in 2018. Now I’m not saying that the trend will continue, obviously with time comes age, but could we possibly see Gronk give it one last good try? I don’t think so.
Starting only 11 games and playing in 13, Gronks injury concerns have plagued him for years now, and it’s what has hindered him from being the #1 TE in every year he’s been in the league. In 2018 he put up 47/682/3, which is ok for a TE, but we really depend on TD’s in a very small group of playable TE’s, and he didn’t have many last year.
According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Gronk’s current ADP is at 4.12 or around 47th overall, and I still see that as too high of a pick to use on a TE that is aging with injury concerns every year. That’s ahead of players like Tarik Cohen, Tyler Boyd, Eric Ebron, and Kerryon Johnson, all of whom I expect to outscore Gronk this season. I were drafting, I’d rather have a young Hunter Henry in the 10th or Trey Burton in the 11th. I’d stay away from Gronk this year, unless there’s some type of unbelievable value for him in the mid-rounds of your draft.
Stat prediction: 50/620/4 (with injury concerns hindering these numbers)